Investing and Economic Indicators.

Investing and Economic Indicators As an investor it is important to understand how economic indicators can impact financial markets, investing and ultimately the value of your investments. The key to your success will be looking at these economic indicators, extracting what you need to make the right investment decisions. Economic Indicators are key statistics that show where the economy is headed by monitoring inflation. The reason why inflation is of paramount importance is based on the fact that it highly influences the level of interest rates. Stability within the economy is maintained as long as inflation is kept under control. Rising inflation reflects rising prices caused by demand and exceeding supply. In other words, the increase in prices of goods and services would erode the purchasing power of the money you make, on the assumption that the money you earn does not increase in line with inflation. To put it simply, Governments use economic indicators as tools to ensure stability within the economy. Consequently the individual indicators of inflation like the consumer price index; unemployment and gross domestic product cannot be directly manipulated; therefore to slow down (or speed up) the rate of growth in prices (inflation), interest rates are used. Interest rates determine the willingness and ability of individuals and businesses to borrow money and make investments. Changes in economic activity, when triggered by changes in interest rates, can fuel an expansion or cause a downturn in the economy. For companies, higher interest rates often mean lower profits. If interest rates rise, companies have to pay more, to borrow the money they require to fund growth of their company. Eventually, this translates into higher prices for their goods and, often, lower sales. Especially if customers are buying on credit and have to pay higher interest rates for them to borrow. Potential customers may decide they cannot afford to buy products as the cost of credit is high. The eventual decline in company sales and earnings is something investors anticipate as soon as rates go up. The result is that stock prices go down before the effects of the increased interest rates are actually felt on the company's bottom line. Conversely, when interest rates fall, company borrowing costs are lower, so their profits on the same level of sales will be higher. Therefore, customers who buy on credit are more comfortable buying if they are paying lower rates, so they buy more. This creates higher sales, which will lead to increased company profits. Eventually higher profits will lead to an increase in stock prices. More often than not, the above situation creates an environment where investors are typically ready to pay higher prices as soon as the Central Bank intervene to cut interest rates in the anticipation of the cycle of increased profits. As an investor it is important to remember that the price of your stock will change throughout its lifetime because the price you actually obtain will be determined by current market conditions . and more importantly interest rate fluctuations. This will also determine the capital you will gain or lose. So when next time you hear about economic indicators, always remember how they will affect the value of your stocks and whether you would need to re-evaluate your positions.

Nifty trading tip for tommorow

After very volatile session today,nifty will  move negative tommorow

Next target for nifty will be some where near 4800  and a huge resistance is there near 4940.

Today nifty crosses 4970 during the day just because of short covering,this pull back is not sustainable.

Nifty may open near 4920 where one should short with a stoploss near 4950 for a big target of 4820-4800.

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How to select your trade ?

Successful trading is all about managing trades once you are in them, regardless of where they came from. I think a great trader could probably turn a profit taking random trades, as long as he manages them well. Now I do believe that finding quality chart patterns is essential, mostly because trading good setups in liquid stocks allows for the best risk/reward relationship on the front end. That is why I run my swing trading website – to highlight the best charts in the market for potential trades. My trade selection process is based on my ability to manage those trades, therefore I want to find only the best. Why not predetermine your stop in case you are wrong by taking the trades with a natural stop-loss nearby?

Having said that, let me touch on the last comment regarding stops. One of the first things I want to know before I take a trade is how much I am likely to lose in case I am wrong (and I will definitely be wrong some of the time). This helps me to determine two things: position sizing and profit expectation. If I am willing to lose $1000.00 on a trade and the natural stop is 1 point away, then a position size of 1000 shares will be obvious. Furthermore, if I want to keep my reward-to-risk relationship at 3 or 4 to 1, then I would look to pull at least 3 times my potential loss out of the trade on the profit side. This would be a 3 point profit for this example.

Now, how do I go about finding those trades? Each night I begin with all the stocks in the market and run some basic scans on them which filter out the low-dollar stocks and the low-volume stocks using TCNet, my charting software. Once I have the remaining list, which is typically about 1600 stocks, I sort that list by their close relative to that day's range. This simply means the stocks at the top of the list finished the day near their highs, and the stocks at the bottom of the list finished near their lows. Sorting by this helps me to first find my likely long candidates and then move on to the short candidates, as I typically like continuation plays. Once the list is sorted, I use the spacebar to screen each stock in pretty rapid succession. Going through the list takes me about an hour. Simply scrolling through so many stocks each night also helps keep tabs on the overall market health.

As I move through the list, I keep a finger on the "F" key and "flag" the stocks which are good enough for a closer look. After screening the big list, I am left with about 50 flagged stocks which I look closer at to determine my trade candidates which will be in the swing trading newsletter. It is at this point that I separate the good from the great. I want stocks which are able to move. A stock like MSFT which sees daily changes of only a few cents is just not a candidate. I want potential for a good, quick profit. I also want to find tight setups where my stop is nearby. A wide, sloppy chart will add slippage and make it more difficult to know when to exit. This is why I often overlook momentum stocks which have already broken out. Why make trading any more difficult than it already is?

Volume is the next thing I will really key in on, as it is the best true measure of activity and just what the "big boys" are doing. Does volume support the overall look of the chart? Has there been more activity lately than normal which may indicate a move is about to occur? If so, then that stock makes my list.

When looking for shorts, I want to see lower highs, downside volume and relative weakness to either the market or that particular stock's sector. This indicates to me that pressure remains on the stock and the path of least resistance is still down. Any stock that is unable to participate in market strength gets my attention quickly.

The next morning, I set alerts in my CyberTrader Pro trading platform which will trigger when the stocks from the newsletter meet their breakout prices. Most of the time, I set these alerts to actually get me into the trades automatically for at least a partial position. I also set up my watch lists in Trade-Ideas Pro, which helps me to gauge momentum and relative volume. Their product is excellent, and is an essential part of my trading.

As the day progresses, I keep a close eye on market activity (or inactivity it has seemed to be lately). If buying is strong and the futures are holding up well, I will add to longs in expectation of strength (vice versa for shorts). If the futures are flat and choppy, then I cut way back on my activity and grab a good trading book. Watching the market action with this in mind helps me select which trades are worth adding to and which are not.

From there, it is all a matter of execution and sticking with a good, disciplined trading plan. Cutting losers and keeping winning trades on my screen is the only remaining part of my job once I have found the trades, which is also the most important part!

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Nifty trading tip for tommorow

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